Births, deaths and population movement
Last reviewed: 26/08/2025
The birth to death ratio allows comparison of local authorities with national level statistics, giving the rate of births to every one death. Bolton's rate has shown a consistently greater number of births than deaths since 2013. The trend data shows a gradual overall decline in the birth to death ratio over the period, highlighting the increase in excess deaths experienced during the Covid-19 pandemic. By comparison, there has been consistently more births than deaths across England as a whole, though the national rate, like Bolton, has fallen slightly in recent years.
Bolton’s previously high birth rate has contributed to an increased number of young people, which is projected to affect the numbers of young people in secondary school. As the number of births are gradually reducing, this demand is likely to also reduce in the future.
Number of live births and total fertility rate for Bolton, North West region and England
| Bolton | North West | England | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year | Live births | Total fertility rate (TFR) | Live births | Total fertility rate (TFR) | Live births | Total fertility rate (TFR) |
| 2019 | 3,676 | 1.90 | 80,020 | 1.65 | 610,505 | 1.59 |
| 2020 | 3,583 | 1.86 | 76,329 | 1.57 | 585,195 | 1.53 |
| 2021 | 3,453 | 1.79 | 78,127 | 1.59 | 595,948 | 1.55 |
| 2022 | 3,559 | 1.83 | 76,399 | 1.53 | 577,046 | 1.49 |
| 2023 | 3,396 | 1.71 | 73,741 | 1.44 | 563,561 | 1.42 |
| 2024 | 3,649 | 1.80 | 74,646 | 1.44 | 567,708 | 1.42 |
In 2024, there were 3,649 live births in Bolton. Bolton’s total fertility rate (1.80) is the second highest in Greater Manchester and higher than the average for the North West region, meaning maternity and health visiting services are under ongoing demand. Over the past 10 years, births in Bolton have remained relatively stable aside from a “mini baby boom” during 2012.
The chart above illustrates the already observed and the projected number of births and deaths in Bolton between 2013 and 2047. This demonstrates an initial levelling off before an increase in births post-2030; that is predicted to occur as a result of the high number of children born over the last decade becoming young adults and having children themselves. Deaths are likely to increase mainly due to an ageing population, reducing the gap between the number of births to deaths up to 2047.
Population change is mainly determined by international migration, internal migration, births and deaths. Similarly to the national picture, population growth in mid-2024 within Bolton, resulted mostly from net international migration.